Betting Summary August 2014 : Post Origin NRL Bounces Back

With the State of Origin series done and dusted for 2014 the NRL finally returned to some normalcy over the month of August and along with it returned my betting profitability. However, results were still a bit volatile since with some teams falling out of finals contention it remained difficult to anticipate whether these teams would fire up with nothing to play for but pride.

There were 5 rounds of football played, though I did give myself a week off in Week 23 as I needed to freshen up. The week off did wonders for me as I recorded my best week of the year during Week 25, though admittedly I got lucky with a few nicely priced wagers it was probably luck that was due to come my way after some horrible fortune that struck me during the coldest months.

The betting results for August 2014 were a little bit mixed, but overall they are positive as my betting performance returned to good form. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-

Week	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
NRL Week 21	35	31.42%	+22.93
NRL Week 22	41	19.51%	-19.04
NRL Week 23	0	0.00%	+0.00
NRL Week 24	38	28.94%	+13.37
NRL Week 25	39	38.46%	+55.73
TOTAL	153	29.41%	+72.99

The highlight here is clearly the result in Week 25 which was an abnormally good week primarily due to landing a number of nicely priced Tryscorer bets, but I’m not complaining. Overall the month of August fell just a couple of units short of completely reversing the losses made in June and July so it has been a satisfying bounce back after the difficult State of Origin period and an important return to form heading into the NRL Finals Series.

Looking more closely at the breakdown of betting across market types we have :-

Market Type	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Match Handicap	20	35.00%	+10.14
40 Min Handicap	17	52.94%	+1.40
Margin Bracket	9	22.22%	+13.00
Match/Team Points	21	47.62%	+8.57
Points Bracket	3	0.00%	-2.00
Halftime / Fulltime	10	10.00%	-7.30
First Scoring Play	17	11.76%	-11.60
Tryscorers	54	24.07%	+59.57
Other	2	50.00%	+1.20
TOTAL	153	29.41%	+72.99

Even though the Tryscorers category is clearly where the bulk of the profit is coming from this month, it is encouraging to see many of the other categories also showing a modest profit. The Margin Bracket category is showing a profit for the first time since early in the season after landing a couple of Halftime Draw bets at 12.00 each and the Match/Team Points category is also in profit for the first time in months primarily due to a change in strategy where I avoided more of the short odds (sub 2.0) and cherry picked for value markets at odds of 2.20 to 3.50 so that when I am right about points I am getting better payouts. I also had better success with betting on Team Points (even for just a 40 minute period) than Total Match Points.

On the flip side, I tried a new strategy with the 1st Scoring Play markets to try and take the underdog for a Try as 1st Score at odds of 2.50+ but this mostly backfired. I landed a couple so I am not totally convinced it’s a failed strategy as it still performed better than backing penalty goals which is a strategy that worked early in the season but I think that has died off as the season progresses and teams get more confident with their attacking options. I’ll need to do some deeper analysis here.

The Halftime/Fulltime category was also a disappointing result for the second month in a row. I’ll need to have a closer look at my strategy here too as late season fatigue could be affecting teams ability to mount comebacks after half time. It also could be related to the fact that some teams are dropping out of contention this time of year and not showing the sort of early game intensity you can generally rely on earlier in the season.

For any more detailed analysis of my betting performance in August, feel free to check out my Facebook Page where all of my bets have been posted prior to kickoff. Or, if you would like to ask any specific questions about my August betting, please write to me at phantomlongshot@flameburst.com

Betting Summary July 2014 : Disasterous month for NRL

Another short month of NRL football with only 4 rounds played and broken up by State of Origin 3 has turned out to be a very poor month for betting. With State of Origin out of the way and players back into their club teams mid-month it was expected that the NRL would return to some normalcy, but the competition has continued to be unpredictable. No doubt some players and teams are struggling with fatigue and don’t seem able to put in consistent performances. Possibly this is related to the increased physicality and injury toll from this years State of Origin series.

The biggest challenge this month has been figuring out which teams are going to “show up” on any given day and perform. Most teams in the competition are failing to put in 80 minute performances. Results also haven’t been helped by a sharp deterioration in the quality of refereeing post-origin.

The betting results for July 2014 are showing some sharp losses, making it the worst performing month of 2014 to date. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-

Week	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
NRL Week 17 + Origin 3	31	9.67%	-15.70
NRL Week 18	27	18.51%	-4.06
NRL Week 19	29	13.79%	-31.29
NRL Week 20	33	21.21%	-2.16
TOTAL	120	15.83%	-53.21

Overall these are consistently poor results, particularly Week 19 which accounts for the bulk of the losses this month. Week 19 was the first full week of NRL football after players had been given a chance to recover from State of Origin. Some players backed up after SOO 3 in Week 18, but all could have been expected to have had decent recovery time ahead of Week 19. Looking deeper into Week 19 results there were a couple of particularly unlucky outcomes that week. 3 games in particular stand out that I can remember quite clearly :-

Brisbane vs Warriors – With 20 minutes to go Warriors are up by 4 and we are sitting pretty good with 2 units on a Brisbane/Warriors Halftime/Fulltime double at 9.30 and only needing 1 more point for the Warriors to collect on a 4 unit Over 10.5 points bet for the 2nd half. Warriors then go on to choke as Dale Copley breaks the game open with 2 tries in 3 minutes for Brisbane and the Warriors don’t score another point – costing a likely 26.4 unit return from those 2 bets. The cruelest twist is that we have Dale Copley for 1st Tryscorer, but he scores the last 2 instead.

Newcastle vs Titans – One of the real shockers with the Knights just not showing up on arguably their biggest day of the year (NOTE – They will beat the 2013 premiers the Roosters the following week) This game was still looking sweet with Tyrone Roberts scoring in the 70th minute and looking likely as our Last Tryscorer at a decent price of 26.00. Sure enough, with a minute remaining on the clock the Knights let in a soft try and costing us another 13 unit collect. We also had 1 unit on Dave Taylor as 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half at a cool 21.00 but he scores just before, instead of just after half time. Another 21 units near-missed there.

Dragons vs Manly – Loaded up on Jason Nightingale for this match. Having him To Score 2 Tries at 9.50 and 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half at 14.50 but he misses the 1st try after half time by a fingernail. If he gets this try we land both bets and Dragons also get within 7.5 points to give us the Match Handicap bet aswell. That fingernail miss cost a total payout of 34 units across those 3 bets.

In hindsight, Week 19 was just “one of those weeks” where things just don’t quite go right and they can leave you questioning whether you’ve lost your edge. But that’s professional punting, you have those weeks now and then and you just have to pick yourself up off the canvas and get your head back in the game. I wasn’t far off in any of those games, but sometimes even when you’re on the right track you can be unlucky and lose big. With an inch of luck in just 1 of those 3 games, Week 19 becomes a break-even week at worst.

Looking more closely at the breakdown of betting across market types we have :-

Market Type	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Match Handicap	9	11.11%	-10.63
40 Min Handicap	12	25.00%	-19.86
Margin Bracket	12	8.33%	-9.20
Match/Team Points	12	41.66%	-2.62
Points Bracket	6	16.66%	+11.60
Halftime / Fulltime	12	0.00%	-15.50
First Scoring Play	12	25.00%	+4.30
Tryscorers	44	11.36%	-10.30
Other	1	0.00%	-1.00
TOTAL	120	15.83%	-53.21

Similarly uninspiring results, no matter which way you carve it. But it’s worth looking for trends anyway to see if there are any clues as to where things are going wrong – or right.

On the positive side, I’ve turned around recent losses on the 1st Scoring Play markets by shifting many of my bets away from the Penalty goal options that were prevalent early in the season. I’m finding some value now by taking the underdog scoring a try as the first scoring play. In a game I expect to be fairly open this option can sometimes be found at 2.50 to 3.00, when often it should be closer to an even-money shot.

The Points Bracket category is also in profit this month after landing a 0-20 points scored in the Melbourne vs Bulldogs game in Week 18 at 15.00. Overall my performance in the related Match/Team Points category is also improved. Still showing a slight loss but with a strike rate back up to 41.66% it confirms that being more selective in the points scored categories is improving my results slightly.

The Tryscorers category is showing the first loss in 3 months, however I remain confident that I still have an edge here due to an overwhelming number of near-misses this month. Quite often I would back a 1st Tryscorer and they’d get the Last Try, or score 2 tries but not the first. Variance is generally high in this category and my strike rate is down, but I’m putting it down to bad luck and some bad refereeing. Who can forget Shane Haynes on field “No Try” against David Nofoaluma for the first try in the Manly vs Wests match of Week 18. Widely touted as the worst refereeing decision of the year, that one cost us an 8.5 unit payout. Shane Hayne has had an atrocious 2 months since State of Origin started and he murdered a number of games this month, making many punters consider whether he might be on the take.

The biggest disappointment this month comes from the previously consistent 40 Min Handicap category showing a loss for the first time in months. Possibly I am over-betting and/or over-staking here as I have tried to exploit my edge of previous months. I have been frustrated by the inability this month to determine which teams are “turning up to play” and the inconsistency of teams who are not playing 80 minutes which is affecting performance in this category. There have been some wild swings in matches this month that have been particularly hard to pick. Cronulla have become an enigma and Newcastle have also become a very difficult team to read. It’s that time of the year where teams at the bottom of the ladder can be very risky to bet on or against because it’s hard to know what, or if, they will play for.

Normally big swings in matches can generate good results in the Halftime/Fulltime category though performance here is down too with a 0% strike rate for the month after consistent profit in previous months. Looking deeper into results here there was the big near-miss mentioned earlier in the Brisbane vs Warrios game in Week 19, but also 2 other games where the HT/FT flip that I often back was reversed. Sharks vs Newcastle in Week 18 and Tigers vs Bulldogs in Week 19 both had big swings after half time, but I had them the wrong way around in the HT/FT doubles.

Next month to try and hedge against some of the unpredictability I am going to wind my betting back a bit on those teams who are falling out of finals contention and have uncertain motivations. This is also this time of year where I pick out a team or two who are building form and looking likely to go all the way. Check out my Facebook and Twitter pages for all my pre-game and futures betting info.

Betting Summary June 2014 : Tough Month for NRL

Only 4 weekends of NRL football were played in June, a month which was punctuated by State of Origin 2 and saw less actual matches than a normal NRL month. This has corresponded with a lower number of bets and with so many players in and out of sides and struggling with fatigue, it has been a much more varied and unpredictable month for the NRL.

As a result, June 2014 has been a tough month for NRL punting and betting performance analysis shows a moderate loss. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-

Week	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
NRL Week 13	34	14.71%	-10.12
NRL Week 14 + Origin 2	21	4.76%	-15.50
NRL Week 15	27	33.33%	+5.81
NRL Week 16	33	21.21%	-2.80
TOTAL	115	19.13%	-22.61

Overall these are pretty disappointing results. Only 1 weekend showing a modest profit and the start of the month being unusually poor. Historically I have always found the State of Origin period to be a bit tougher than usual. The standard of play in regular NRL matches does noticeably drop, as does the professionalism shown by many players. With so many team changes and injuries over the period it is difficult to analyse form lines with any consistency and it is a period where the bookies often have a distinct advantage as they usually get the inside word on player ins and outs ahead of regular betting market players – such as myself. This is compounded by the lack of information provided by mainstream media as its articles focus almost exclusively on State of Origin. For instance, in Thursdays Telegraph there are 12 articles about Rugby League and none of them even mention anything about the coming weekends matches. In many respects the NRL takes a back seat during this period and a lot of players tend to slacken off, so it is hard to tell whether a team is going to “turn up to play” on any given day. But there’s no point complaining, instead we just need to find out where things are going wrong, adapt and overcome.

Having a look across the market types for betting over the month of June gives us these results :-

Market Type	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Match Handicap	19	21.05%	-14.49
40 Min Handicap	9	55.55%	+4.15
Margin Bracket	10	10.00%	-3.00
Match/Team Points	11	36.36%	-6.66
Points Bracket	9	0.00%	-4.75
Halftime / Fulltime	14	21.42%	+8.50
First Scoring Play	8	0.00%	-6.00
Tryscorers	34	14.70%	+0.14
Other	1	0.00%	-0.50
TOTAL	115	19.13%	-22.61

Once again my highest strike rate and solid profit is coming from the 40 Minute Handicap category, and this month the somewhat related Halftime / Fulltime category is showing the largest net profit. This is encouraging as it suggests that I still have a reasonably good handle on which teams are likely to start matches strongly or poorly and pick up or drop off over the course of a game as a result of desperation, complacency and/or fatigue.

The Tryscorers category was also mildly encouraging, again showing a profit though only a small one this month. My biggest win for the month comes from this category landing Josh Dugan to be the First Tryscorer in the Dragons vs Melbourne game in Week 16 at a price of 15.00. Drilling a bit deeper into this category I have been getting good results backing players To Score a Try this month, but actually landed zero Last Tryscorer bets so I will need to keep an eye on that to see if there is a trend emerging.

Once again the Margin Bracket and Match/Team Points categories showed losses, though interestingly it was almost an identical performance in these categories to the month of May and it does not indicate the reversal of recent good performance lies here. I landed zero successful bets in the Points Bracket and First Scoring Play categories which is a concern, though admittedly the sample size this month is small and these are usually options I take at longer odds so I do expect a low strike rate here.

The biggest concern is the turnaround in the Match Handicap category where my strike rate dropped from 45.45% in May down to 21.05% in June. This reversal saw a +17.22 unit profit drop to a -14.49 unit loss and is undoubtedly where my largest problem this month lies. Looking deeper into this category I can see that much of the losses here are from giving away larger handicaps at bigger odds, which fits with my earlier assessment of players showing fatigue and lacking professionalism at this point in the season – basically teams are getting ahead and then “cruising” or not going on to score the bigger victories that were more common early in the season. This tells me that I might need to pull back from betting on those big blow-out scorelines during the origin period.

For any more detailed analysis of my betting performance in June, feel free to check out my Facebook Page where all of my bets have been posted prior to kickoff. Or, if you would like to ask any specific questions about my June betting, please write to me at phantomlongshot@flameburst.com

Betting Summary May 2014 : Consistent Weekly Profit

The reviewing of betting performance is an important part of professional punting because trends can be identified where particular sports or market types may become more or less profitable over time. It is important to constantly adapt and evolve betting strategies over time to stay competitive and this is not really possible without reviewing recent performance.

May 2014 has been a solid month with consistent weekly profits generated. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-

Week	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Rep Weekend	9	55.55%	+14.55
NRL Week 9	28	32.14%	+13.10
NRL Week 10	41	24.39%	+0.48
NRL Week 11 + Origin 1	35	25.71%	+21.27
NRL Week 12	27	33.33%	+14.22
TOTAL	140	30.00%	+63.62

Overall these are fairly satisfactory results. The Representative Weekend was a bit of a statistical anomaly because of fewer games being played and fewer bets placed, so it can be discounted to some extent. Interestingly the 2 weeks with the higher number of bets also show the lower strike rate, suggesting those weeks had more bets placed at longer odds. The vast difference in profit for those 2 weeks would also be consistent with the higher variance on good price options.

Having a look across the market types for betting over the month of May gives us these results :-

Market Type	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Match Handicap	22	45.45%	+17.22
40 Min Handicap	16	62.50%	+8.43
Margin Bracket	9	11.11%	-3.00
Match/Team Points	19	42.10%	-6.08
Points Bracket	8	12.50%	+6.75
Halftime / Fulltime	17	11.76%	+2.50
First Scoring Play	9	22.22%	+3.40
Tryscorers	40	20.00%	+34.40
TOTAL	140	30.00%	+63.62

Here the analysis becomes a bit more interesting. A good portion of my monthly profit for May has come from the Tryscorer bets and the Match and 40 minute Handicap bets. My strike rate is very good in particular when handicap betting on only one half of football (62.5%) though the profit on that market category is only fair since generally the prices obtained in this market category are only around the 1.90 mark. The Tryscorer betting, on the other hand, is often at much longer odds. My biggest individual wins of the month came from the Tryscorer category with a bet on Ben Matulino to be First Tryscorer in the Warriors vs Canberra game in Week 11 at a price of 41.00. Also I had a good win from having Jamie Soward to be the Last Tryscorer in the Penrith vs Parramatta game in Week 12 at a price of 26.00.

The Margin Bracket category was disappointing. It includes the 1-12 Margin bets, the 1-6 Tribet option and the Draw options. Here I was let down by the frequent Halftime Draw bets placed, though I had great success in this category early in the year so I am not too concerned. I’m more concerned about the Match / Team Points result, where a decent strike rate of 42.1% still gave me a net loss. This is another category where odds taken are frequently around the 1.90 mark. I have found in the past that this can be a tough category as it is very frequently affected by the weather and also by the refereeing. Some referees will blow a penalty-a-minute (results in high scoring), while others will allow defenders to encroach the 10 metre mark and stifle opposition attacks (results in low scoring). I take some heart from the good result in the related Points Bracket category where I make up for those losses. Here I have a much lower strike rate at 12.5% but am showing a profit from hitting an 11-20 Total Points bracket at 26.00 in the Souths vs Sharks game in Week 11. What I can see here is that I need to be more careful taking those shorter odds on Points markets.

A couple of other things I’ve noted from the May betting performance is that I am not reading a couple of teams very well. In particular the Sydney Roosters I have gone 3 weeks running without landing a single winning bet on their matches. That is 0 wins out of 17 bets placed on Roosters matches over 3 weeks. Clearly I am having difficulty with the Roosters inconsistency in effort where they are definitely a class side but don’t always play to their potential. The other team I had been struggling to read a bit in the past is the Brisbane Broncos, but I am starting to get a handle on their spine combinations now and I have turned around recent poor betting on the Broncos with a solid win in their Manly game. That’s the way it goes sometimes when a team can become inconsistent and hard to read it is often a good idea to reduce stakes or stay away from them until I am seeing them a bit clearer.

For any more detailed analysis of my betting performance in May, feel free to check out my Facebook Page where all of my bets have been posted prior to kickoff. Or, if you would like to ask any specific questions about my May betting, please write to me at phantomlongshot@flameburst.com

State of Origin – Bad time to raise stakes

State of Origin is the biggest rugby league event on the calendar for Australia. In my opinion it is even bigger than the NRL Grand Final or the Rugby League World Cup final, both from the perspective of fan interest but also with regards to betting volume.

Like the Melbourne Cup every year, there are a lot of casual punters that come out of the woodwork and even experienced punters are often tempted to “Ante Up” with bigger bets than they would normally place. Primarily because everybody likes to get caught up in the hype of origin football and, let’s face it, it’s exciting to load up on the State of Origin and ride every tackle or pass.

But have a think about this for a moment and you’ll realise that urge to bet big on origin is really an emotional one. From a professional punters perspective, it’s just another game of football which is just as likely to be decided by the bounce of the ball or a dodgy refereeing decision. In fact if previous years are any guide, it is even more likely! So while it might be fun to bet big on origin, it is actually not a good time to be raising your betting stakes.

From a betting market perspective, State of Origin IS a bit different. For a start there is a lot more betting volume on this event than a regular NRL game, so betting on the Betfair exchange is more attractive than usual as good prices can be found with decent volumes. The popular markets are generally a lot sharper (more accurate) than usual, but with an influx of dumb money there can still be value to be found in some of the more exotic markets, especially if shrewd punters are prepared to lay the popular choices. Also, speaking of dumb money, the bookmakers are desperate to “Rope in a dope” and get those casual punters betting so they are offering all sort of promotions that give money back or enhanced odds for certain outcomes. The combination of higher volume on the betting exchanges and bookmaker promotions means that this can be a good time for some bank building via arbitrage plays. Well, unless you’re like me and your bookmaker accounts have been gimped already.

Here’s an example of some of the promotions on offer for Game 1 :-

Centrebet – Double your winnings if Slater or Hayne score a try
Sportsbet – Money back if your team loses by 8 points or less
TAB – Money back on NSW if they lead at any time and go on to lose
Tom Waterhouse – Double your winnings if your team wins by 10 points or more

As you can see, if you are putting bets on with any or all of these bookmakers and hedging other outcomes against the Betfair exchange, it is possible to guarantee a profit regardless of the result.

I myself am still a bit undecided about what to do with Game 1 of the series. The prices look pretty right to me. I think that NSW will go OK but I just can’t see them winning at Suncorp with a debutant halves pairing. Maybe they’ll be competitive early while their forwards can dominate, but if the game is played at a frantic pace and fatigue sets in then the class and experience of the QLD spine will probably take over and I can see them coming home strong on the back of a big home crowd. I think Reynolds will go OK, but I’m concerned about Hodkinson. His kicking game will be crucial and if he gets stage fright then NSW will have no chance. I’ll probably take NSW with the plus handicap in the first half and maybe a NSW/QLD for the Halftime/Fulltime double. I’m tipping a try or 2 for Slater as well but I recommend staying out of the Man of the Match markets since they can turn up some unusual results for origin games.

As always I’ll be putting my bets for Game 1 up on Facebook prior to kick-off.

NRL Week 11 – Impact of Missing Stars

Just when the NRL competition was taking shape after 10 rounds and punters were starting to get a handle on team form lines, along comes the State of Origin period to really shake things up. It’s a short round this weekend with only 5 games to be played. While 6 teams get the benefit of the Bye and the week off, the other 10 teams will take the field minus their origin stars.

This can be a tricky time for serious punters as quite often if you take the top couple of players out of any team they will perform quite differently, so once again we consider throwing out the form guide and looking for value where it may be least expected.

Conventional analytics suggests that those teams who will be missing their playmakers will be the most affected. Certainly this is how most punters think and with the media generally hyping individuals ahead of team performances, this provides us an explanation of why the Roosters have gone from underdogs against the Bulldogs, to firm favourites – since the Roosters halves were expected to miss the round and the Bulldogs were expected to play. Instead the reverse is true.

An often understated side-effect of losing key players is the leadership, experience and coolness under pressure that can also be missing. For instance, the loss of Robbie Farah at Wests Tigers has a much greater impact on that team. As might the loss of Paul Gallen for the Sharks. The Titans, meanwhile have built their early season on the back of their grinding tough forward pack. They will certainly miss their origin forwards this week. But will the Raiders really miss Papalli? Clearly some teams will miss their origin players more than others…

This period of the NRL season is also a good chance for us to have a look at some of the young talent coming up through the ranks. Sometimes these young players have been held out of the NRL by more experienced players and they can thrive with the new opportunity. Take a look at Samisoni Langi running out for the Roosters and Moses Mbye for the Bulldogs. These guys could both be future stars and it wouldn’t surprise me if they both hit the ground running in the NRL (excuse the pun).

In addition to the above, I’ll be looking out for a few things in some of the specific games and as always I’ll be posting my pre-match bets up on Facebook.

Bulldogs vs Roosters – I may sound crazy, but I think the market has over-reacted to the Bulldogs halves being out. The Bulldogs have been going great this year because their forward pack is back on song. The forwards have actually been setting up a lot of the tries, so while there is a lot of hype around Reynolds and Hodkinson I think the Bulldogs will still do ok. The hard-nosed and gritty captain Mick Ennis (The Menace) is still there to be the general and steer the forwards around the park and Moses Mbye may well enjoy the space created if the Bulldogs forwards can get on top. Last week I expected the Roosters to come out breathing fire and it was the worst effort I’ve seen from them in some time. Not sure if it’s complacency or fatigue but something is not quite right here. Maybe they’ll get up this week, but my gut tells me that maybe some of the Roosters players don’t really give a sh*t anymore. So I’ll be looking for value with Bulldogs getting handicap points and maybe winning by a margin. If they can turn this match into a dog-fight it could also be a low scoring game, so maybe the Bulldogs penalty goal as 1st Scoring Play would be another good bet.

Canberra vs Cowboys – Another major over-reaction, this time to Jonathan Thurston being out. No question JT is one of the best players in the world right now, but this club has good depth and don’t forget that the Cowboys won the Auckland Nines tournament in the pre-season – WITHOUT Thurston. This is a good opportunity for others to step up and, let’s face it, the Canberra Raiders have been awful for the last few weeks and they don’t deserve to be 1.45 favourites against ANYONE. This is another one where I am looking for the underdog Cowboys with a points handicap and if the game is close I’d expect that the Raiders will fold again so I will probably also take the Cowboys outright. This game could turn into a bit of touch footy so betting Overs on points scored might also be worth a shot.

Yet again NSW fails to learn from Ghosts of Origins Past

Today the NSW origin team was officially announced, at least 24 hours after it was officially leaked.

Surprise, surprise, NSW have selected not just one, but TWO new halves this year in what have become such revolving door positions it puts the failed Cricket Australia “Rotation Policy” to shame.

Not that I am a huge fan of Maloney or Pearce, since they should never have been there in the first place, but for all the talk each year of NSW needing to “Pick and Stick” you have got to wonder when this debacle is going to end. If the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results” then surely the NSW origin institution is utterly bonkers.

The NSW process for the last 8 series has pretty much been as follows :-

Step 1 – Throw out the previous years half pairing because NSW didn’t win and they obviously aren’t Joey Johns or Brad Fittler

Step 2 – Select a new half pairing that hasn’t played origin before but are in form and could be the next big thing(s)

Step 3 – NSW lose, most likely because the new half(s) are green and inexperienced and can’t handle the pressure

Step 4 – Go back to Step 1 the following year and repeat

Just stop for a minute and think about what is wrong here. For starters, you don’t get experience in origin and learn how to handle the pressure of origin until you play origin. So NSW do need to give their halves some experience and learn from QLD that a stable side can only be achieved by “Pick and Stick” selection policy. By dumping halves every year you are always going to end up with a green and inexperienced halves combination that will always find the pressure of origin difficult.

That brings me to the next big issue – NSW is constantly picking its side based on FORM. Does that sound dumb? Well, have a think for a minute about this old cricket cliché that most definitely applies here “Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent”. It pretty much sums up the major difference between NSW and QLD selection policy. QLD have selected Darius Boyd and Josh Papalli for Game 1. Both are currently OUT of form, but they have proven that they are class players. Many will falsely cite that Mal Meninga is showing loyalty by selecting these players, but he knows they are class and if the “Showing Loyalty” argument was true then nobody would ever get dropped from the QLD team – and we know that’s not going to hold up.

Yet NSW year after year picks its team on form, but year after year most players form lines change dramatically. So is it any wonder that the NSW team has changed so much over the years? I’m not just talking about the last 8 series either, picking on form has been an issue for NSW for a long time now.

What makes this cycle of failure worse is that players come into the NSW team with form and confidence on their side, but when they lose and are discarded it can cripple them for years to come. Take a look back and you’ll see Jarrod Mullen, selected as a classy halfback and touted as the next Joey Johns….he went onto the scrap-heap after 1 game. He took years to recover, but is now older, wiser and stronger than he ever was. At 27 years of age he’s still got some good years left in him, but he won’t get another chance. Jamie Soward, selected in 2011 and did a reasonable job in the losing side. He got dumped and his career spiralled downward for 2 years before now he is getting back on track with Penrith. How about Todd Carney? He came of age in the losing origin series of 2012, but did he really deserve to get dropped for the ordinary James Maloney who had a peak of form in 2013? Carney has held up ok at Cronulla and he now has experience and maturity on his side, but he’s not getting a look in. The fickle NSW selectors have moved on. They are looking for the next big thing….the next Great White Hope. Well they may as well select Luke Brooks, he’ll probably be in the halves for 2015 if NSW lose in 2014 – yes you heard it here first. Make a note.

Mullen and Carney are class players. They’re now experienced and mature, they’ve been to origin before and played OK in losing sides. Their current form lines are even ok. Selectors probably think they’re too old now, but have we learnt nothing from the past? Guys like Lockyer, Lewis, Webcke and Civenoceva who played well into their twilight years, or even Langer, Fittler, Johns – who all made successful comebacks to origin in their later years. Age is NOT a barrier in origin. Inexperience IS!

Yet we now also have one more complication for the NSW team selections. Daley wants to pick a club combination in the halves. As if it wasn’t hard enough to find class halves before, now we need 2 at the same club. This line of thinking may as well see us throw out a game of Bulldogs vs QLD or Roosters vs QLD. Surely it is not too much to expect that representative players can adapt to a game plan and form new combinations with other class players. Really Laurie, you’re just making life hard for NSW. Bulldogs are the form team at the top of the table, so you pick the Bulldogs halves. That doesn’t sound like rocket science to me….but it doesn’t sound like it will work either.

The final piece of the NSW selection debacle is the requirement/expectation that the halves need to do everything. They will be the kickers, generals, playmakers, ball runners and goal kickers, so we put all our eggs in one basket. Hodkinson gets picked because he is Reynolds halves parter at the Bulldogs but also because he has a good goal kicking percentage, yet he is the most ordinary halfback I’ve seen selected to play origin that I can recall. In my book if you need to compromise a position to get a goal kicker, you don’t do it in your most important (and the traditional trouble-spot) position of halfback. A NSW half needs to be a good playmaker as the #1 priority. You don’t even get to have a shot at kicking goals unless you can get tries. Surely Robbie Farah could be the general. He and Hayne even have decent kicking games. Select a forward, or a winger who can kick goals. Don’t lump all the responsibility on the halves or all you’ll do is just create scapegoats for 2014 and flush a couple more origin careers down the toilet.

So needless to say, I am not optimistic that NSW are going to suddenly break their losing run in 2014. But the great thing about being a professional punter is that it’s really all about the odds. State of Origin is still a footy contest, so that means anyone can win, and the bookies and punters out there are pricing NSW up in Game 1 to be the longest odds seen for a game at Suncorp. So this means there could be value there. NSW have the forwards and backline to compete even if they don’t have match winners in the halves, so anything can happen and probably will. Don’t be surprised if you see me putting money on NSW at the line. It’s just that, as a NSW fan, it is frustrating to see our origin team selected and managed so badly when we really DO have the talent to win. Origin is rugby leagues marquee event, it deserves to be managed better by NSW and QLD should never have won 8 in a row.

That’s why Mal Meninga is laughing.

NRL Week 10 – Last Call for Origin Hopefuls

With State of Origin teams being picked after this weekends matches, all the focus will be on those players who are possible or probable inclusions into either the NSW or QLD team. The media has already begun working itself up into a frenzy and I am not going to go into detail speculating here about who is likely to be selected and why – I’ll leave that to the mainstream media to cover. I will be focusing on what the impact of the selection process might be as there are a lot of teams which may be affected this weekend and, as always, I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is.

Generally speaking, those players on the fringe of origin selection will be up for a big game this weekend to really make a strong case for getting picked. Considering the recent issues for NSW with Greg Bird being suspended, Andrew Fifita being injured and Mitchell Peace suddenly becoming a possible non-selection, it does mean that there are a LOT more fringe origin players who might be in with a chance for NSW. QLD also seems to have Sam Thiaday out injured so there is at least one forward position up for grabs in the QLD team too.

Another aspect that punters should consider is that there are a few players who might normally have been recovering from injury this weekend but will take the field with painkillers because this weekend is their last chance to impress selectors. Beau Scott from Newcastle fits into this category and maybe Robbie Farah does too. I am sure that there are more who are carrying niggles that we might not know about. These players could be a risk of breakdown during their matches if their injuries are not fully healed and they are trying to play at full intensity.

The third consideration is that there may be a few players who are considered to be near certain inclusions into the NSW squad, but they may be hesitant to really “Put the body on the line” so that they don’t risk injury ahead of the origin series. I don’t usually like to single out players if I don’t have to but an example of this could be Jarryd Hayne. He is normally an outstanding defender, but last week we saw him at the top of his game on offence scoring some great tries to demand selection yet his defensive game was a bit soft. More than once I saw him just sticking his arm out instead of going in hard for tackles he normally wouldn’t miss. Hayne has lost a lot of time to injury over the years and I’m sure this will be in the back of his mind on the eve of being selected for the prized NSW fullback position.

With all this in mind there are a few things I’ll be looking out for in specific games and, as usual, I’ll be posting my bets up on Facebook prior to the respective kick offs. There are a few cracking match ups this weekend and so it promises to be a top weekend of footy :-

Rabbits vs Storm – Probably the match of the round here and we get to see the QLD fullbacks Inglis and Slater facing each other off. In recent years I’d be expecting this to be a low scoring affair, but Storms defence this year has been letting in a lot more points. I don’t usually like taking Overs on points scored at night, but there could be value here on one or both teams if the weather is good. I’ll also keep an eye on the Halftime / Fulltime markets since I would expect Rabbits to be dominant early with their stronger forward pack, but Storm finishing off the better with class and composure from the big 3. Maybe taking Storm with a handicap to win the 2nd half is a good play here. Big games are in store for Adam Reynolds and John Sutton who are being touted as possible NSW origin halves, so we’ll see how they handle that pressure. It’s hard to find a good performance market on those two though, unfortunately.

Eels vs Dragons – With the NSW fullbacks Hayne and Dugan facing each other off, this is another game that should be entertaining to watch. Both teams have good attacking options this year and questionable defences. If Benji Marshall is added to the mix that just makes the gap between attack and defence even wider. It’s a day game too so if the sun is out we could expect this to be a game of touch football so the Overs markets could be attractive and it may even be worth stabbing at one of those high brackets 51-60 and/or 61-70. Hayne should also be good for at least 1 try if any value can be found in Try Scorer markets (looks doubtful – the bookies are all over him). Like Hayne, Josh Dugan can also be brilliant, injury prone and lacking heart in defence at times – but he really needs to be his best here to get into the NSW 17 so he should “Man up”.

Cowboys vs Roosters – Two teams with outstanding rosters and genuine premiership contenders with sides chock full of origin players. Yet both teams have had periods of low intensity and fatigue over the opening rounds. I’d expect them both to be up for a big game here, but it’s the Roosters who I can’t go past in this match. With Pearce and Cordner under fire and Maloney just as likely to lose his origin spot because of Pearce being dropped as he is likely to be dropped for poor form himself, these guys are going to come out breathing fire. In the past the Roosters have really rallied behind Pearce (remember post-SOO 3 last year ?) so even though he is out we could see the Roosters best for the year and this could easily become another blowout result. I’ll be looking for the Roosters in those bigger Margin and Pick-Your-Own-Line markets. Daniel Tupou is also on fire and in line for an origin debut so he could be value in Try Scoring markets if a decent price can be found.

Bulldogs vs Warriors – Both teams in reasonable form of late and both with big barnstorming forwards this could turn out to be an awesome “Power game” if both packs play to their best. Bulldogs give up the home game to play in NZ again, where they met only a few weeks ago and 1 point separated the teams in a match that saw Warriors / Bulldogs in a Halftime / Fulltime flip, so it wouldn’t surprise if the same thing happens again. Then again Warriors could have an off week as they so often do and the Bulldogs win by 20. I’m watching Tony Williams here since he is a possible NSW origin bolter and he got a try for me last weekend at a nice price so I’ll probably back him again here against his Kiwi mates who have been known to let in the odd soft try.

NRL Week 9 – Beware Team Changes

The NRL resumes after a week off and it can be a tricky time to find value in betting markets because there is a more than usual amount of uncertainty regarding form and the composition of the teams that will play over the weekend.

Generally speaking, most NRL players have had a weekend off, so they will be freshened up and some of those niggling injuries have been given a bit of extra time to heal so we should expect good intensity in the games this weekend. However, when we look at the casualty ward and the number of players we have in doubt it makes it very hard to price up markets with any confidence. I’m sure that there are a lot of legitimate player injuries, but there are also more than a few who may have exaggerated their injuries to skip the representative weekend and have a rest. The problem for the average punter is that it is hard to tell which is which.

Some of the players in doubt are key spine players (1, 6, 7 or 9), so whether they are in or out will make a huge difference to their teams and therefore the market prices.

Parramatta : Jarryd Hayne #1
Roosters : James Maloney #6
Broncos : Ben Barba #1
Canberra : Anthony Milford #1
Titans : Albert Kelly #7 & Aiden Sezer #6
Manly : Daly Cherry-Evans #7
Tigers : Robbie Farah #9

As you can see, there are some very influential players in that list, and that’s just the guys who may or may not play on the weekend. There are a ton more key playmakers in the casualty ward, but my point is that these players will significantly affect the markets should they be declared a late in or out.

Often it is wise to leave betting until just before kick-off, but this round it is especially the case. No doubt there are people who have the inside word on some players being fit to play and if they are active in the betting markets before kick-off they have a major advantage over the regular punters who haven’t got a clue. So my advice is to bet late, once the pre-match telecast has begun and you can be certain of who will take the field.

As usual I will be putting my bets up on Facebook prior to kick-off, but they will be very late in those games with such player uncertainties. A couple of things that I will be looking out for in a few of the games are :-

Roosters vs Tigers – The Tigers might be down on playmakers but they won’t be down on effort. So I’ll expect a strong opening from the Tigers forwards and they may just catch the Roosters off guard, who had a great ANZAC day rising to the big occasion but have otherwise been sluggish in the early part of the season. If complacency sets back in for the Roosters after a 2 week break they could get a nasty surprise so I’ll be looking for good options and prices for the Tigers in the first half. I do think Jarad Waereea-Hargreaves will be out for a big game after his NZ team snubbing, so I will also keep a lookout for any player performance markets that he might be in.

Warriors vs Raiders – Two fairly inconsistent teams here and the winner will be the team that actually “turns up” to play and wants the win more. Considering NZ just downed Melbourne in a big game, they might slip back into their undisciplined ways, while Raiders were embarrassed by Manly and should be hungry to bounce back. I hate to take either of these teams as favourite so this is another high variance game where I’ll be looking for the upset result, and that means backing the Raiders for low stakes in high price options.

Dragons vs Bulldogs – The Bulldogs with the best attacking forwards in the competition up against the Dragons who are a bit soft up the middle and have let in far too many tries in the middle of the field, so here I am looking to back Bulldogs forwards in try scoring markets. I’m not sure that the week off would have been good for the Bulldogs though as they were on a winning run and the break could cost them their momentum so I am a bit wary here. Dragons with the plus points may be a good option. They are currently getting +6.

Eels vs Sharks – Depending on injuries here to Hayne, Peats and Mannah, the Eels could be a good bet here. They were humbled by the Cowboys last game and have had 2 weeks to prepare a good bounce back. They are at home as well where they usually do much better and the Sharks have lost their key playmaker Todd Carney. Luke Lewis will go OK in his absence and I expect the Sharks to put in a gritty performance but they will probably struggle to score points without Carneys X-Factor. This one could be a real slug fest so the Unders could also be a good option, particularly if it’s wet and/or if Hayne is out.

Changing your punting mindset

When people find out that I am a professional punter, the first thing they usually ask me is “Can you give me a hot tip ?”, but what they really are asking for is a bet that can’t lose. So when I tip them a 10.00 shot and it doesn’t get up they normally write me off and lose interest in what I do straight away. However, what most experienced punters realise is that there is no such thing as a bet that can’t lose. When people ask me for a hot tip I could do what most tipping shysters in the industry do and tip something at short odds (like backing Black Caviar at 1.07) just to maximise the chance of getting a winner to capture their interest, but I’d rather try and educate them about what being a professional punter is like. So I’ve put some thought into what it really takes to become a professional punter and I reckon the most important factor of success comes down to the mindset of the punter and, from my experience, how that mindset needs to change. In its simplest form I can summarise my own evolving mindset over the years like this :-

1. The Casual Punter bets on what he thinks WILL win

You see it at the racetrack all the time. Race-goers will be poring over the form guide and/or watching the parade looking for the horse that they think is going to win the next race. Once they’ve found their selection they walk up to the TAB, or into the betting ring and put their bet on – often regardless of what price it is. This is a little bit like getting the cart before the horse (excuse the poor pun) because one of the first things that the casual punter needs to realise is that price awareness and obtaining value is a very important part of making a good selection when betting. It is easy to spot the casual punter from a mile away by the way they talk or bet. They are in the business of picking winners and often when I’ve tried to talk some price sense into them with comments like “Your selection is too short”  I get a response back along the lines of “You don’t go broke backing winners mate !”  True enough I suppose, but these are often the poor mugs chasing losses, going all-in on the last race of the day (also known as the “Get out of Jail Stakes”) and/or crying into their beer when their short price favourite goes down. Bookmakers love these guys and they are often the ones who help bend market prices into rediculous shapes for others to exploit.

2. The Semi-Professional Punter bets on what he thinks SHOULD win

I must confess that I got stuck in this mindset for a couple of years and it can be tough to break out of it. The semi-professional usually has a good grasp of how and why it is important to obtain value when betting and knows how to analyse and price up a market. As a semi-professional I used to do all my pre-match analysis ahead of time, as I do now, and then try to figure out what SHOULD win before then shopping around and checking the prices to see if I could find value for my selection. If I couldn’t find value then I would usually come up with a NO BET even if my selection was so short that it meant there had to be value in other options. One problem with this mindset is that the semi-professional still usually gets caught up backing favourites (because favourites by definition *should* win) but for the most part sport and racing can dish up a lot of random and unforeseeable results. Another problem is that you still do all the form analysis, but a lot of betting opportunities are missed if your selection is too short and there is value to be had with other options. However, by far the worst problem with this mindset is the frustration that occurs when a selection that should win but, by some cruel referee decision or random bounce of the ball, doesn’t. There is nothing worse than sitting there after a game having lost a decent chunk of your bank backing a favourite at the shorts but knowing that the better team actually lost. It can really do your head in after a while and a losing run can easily kill your betting mojo.

3. The Professional Punter bets on what he thinks COULD win

This was a simple change in the mindset but when I adopted it the world of possibilities just seemed to open up for me. It was like reaching a kind of punters enlightenment where my eyes were suddenly open and I could see clearly. I remember at the start of an NRL season I wrote down a few notes after a tough season the year before. At the top of the list was this nugget “Rugby League is a random game”.  I started looking at games and wondering what COULD happen, so after I did all my usual pre-match analysis I went into the markets with an open mind to finding value on all sorts of weird and wonderful selections and I could find plenty. Many of them could be found at longer odds and it was a lot easier to cope with those losses and near misses because firstly, my stakes were lower because the odds I was getting were higher, and secondly, because I was never really wrong. What I mean by that is that my selections certainly COULD have won and even if they didn’t, I console myself with the fact that they were worth a shot and didn’t cost a lot. Since adopting this mindset I have become a full time professional punter. I can find value almost anywhere so I am betting more and winning more and I cope with the frequent losses a lot better than I used to even though my strike rate is actually lower than it used to be. Confidence in what I’m doing is high as I don’t find myself doubting or second guessing myself when I have a losing run. In fact often I don’t even notice the losing runs because they don’t hurt so nearly as much.

In my opinion any change in mindset that can help take the emotion out of the bet selection process is surely a step toward being a more professional punter. Are you a punter who could benefit from a change in mindset ?