Today the NSW origin team was officially announced, at least 24 hours after it was officially leaked.
Surprise, surprise, NSW have selected not just one, but TWO new halves this year in what have become such revolving door positions it puts the failed Cricket Australia “Rotation Policy” to shame.
Not that I am a huge fan of Maloney or Pearce, since they should never have been there in the first place, but for all the talk each year of NSW needing to “Pick and Stick” you have got to wonder when this debacle is going to end. If the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results” then surely the NSW origin institution is utterly bonkers.
The NSW process for the last 8 series has pretty much been as follows :-
Step 1 – Throw out the previous years half pairing because NSW didn’t win and they obviously aren’t Joey Johns or Brad Fittler
Step 2 – Select a new half pairing that hasn’t played origin before but are in form and could be the next big thing(s)
Step 3 – NSW lose, most likely because the new half(s) are green and inexperienced and can’t handle the pressure
Step 4 – Go back to Step 1 the following year and repeat
Just stop for a minute and think about what is wrong here. For starters, you don’t get experience in origin and learn how to handle the pressure of origin until you play origin. So NSW do need to give their halves some experience and learn from QLD that a stable side can only be achieved by “Pick and Stick” selection policy. By dumping halves every year you are always going to end up with a green and inexperienced halves combination that will always find the pressure of origin difficult.
That brings me to the next big issue – NSW is constantly picking its side based on FORM. Does that sound dumb? Well, have a think for a minute about this old cricket cliché that most definitely applies here “Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent”. It pretty much sums up the major difference between NSW and QLD selection policy. QLD have selected Darius Boyd and Josh Papalli for Game 1. Both are currently OUT of form, but they have proven that they are class players. Many will falsely cite that Mal Meninga is showing loyalty by selecting these players, but he knows they are class and if the “Showing Loyalty” argument was true then nobody would ever get dropped from the QLD team – and we know that’s not going to hold up.
Yet NSW year after year picks its team on form, but year after year most players form lines change dramatically. So is it any wonder that the NSW team has changed so much over the years? I’m not just talking about the last 8 series either, picking on form has been an issue for NSW for a long time now.
What makes this cycle of failure worse is that players come into the NSW team with form and confidence on their side, but when they lose and are discarded it can cripple them for years to come. Take a look back and you’ll see Jarrod Mullen, selected as a classy halfback and touted as the next Joey Johns….he went onto the scrap-heap after 1 game. He took years to recover, but is now older, wiser and stronger than he ever was. At 27 years of age he’s still got some good years left in him, but he won’t get another chance. Jamie Soward, selected in 2011 and did a reasonable job in the losing side. He got dumped and his career spiralled downward for 2 years before now he is getting back on track with Penrith. How about Todd Carney? He came of age in the losing origin series of 2012, but did he really deserve to get dropped for the ordinary James Maloney who had a peak of form in 2013? Carney has held up ok at Cronulla and he now has experience and maturity on his side, but he’s not getting a look in. The fickle NSW selectors have moved on. They are looking for the next big thing….the next Great White Hope. Well they may as well select Luke Brooks, he’ll probably be in the halves for 2015 if NSW lose in 2014 – yes you heard it here first. Make a note.
Mullen and Carney are class players. They’re now experienced and mature, they’ve been to origin before and played OK in losing sides. Their current form lines are even ok. Selectors probably think they’re too old now, but have we learnt nothing from the past? Guys like Lockyer, Lewis, Webcke and Civenoceva who played well into their twilight years, or even Langer, Fittler, Johns – who all made successful comebacks to origin in their later years. Age is NOT a barrier in origin. Inexperience IS!
Yet we now also have one more complication for the NSW team selections. Daley wants to pick a club combination in the halves. As if it wasn’t hard enough to find class halves before, now we need 2 at the same club. This line of thinking may as well see us throw out a game of Bulldogs vs QLD or Roosters vs QLD. Surely it is not too much to expect that representative players can adapt to a game plan and form new combinations with other class players. Really Laurie, you’re just making life hard for NSW. Bulldogs are the form team at the top of the table, so you pick the Bulldogs halves. That doesn’t sound like rocket science to me….but it doesn’t sound like it will work either.
The final piece of the NSW selection debacle is the requirement/expectation that the halves need to do everything. They will be the kickers, generals, playmakers, ball runners and goal kickers, so we put all our eggs in one basket. Hodkinson gets picked because he is Reynolds halves parter at the Bulldogs but also because he has a good goal kicking percentage, yet he is the most ordinary halfback I’ve seen selected to play origin that I can recall. In my book if you need to compromise a position to get a goal kicker, you don’t do it in your most important (and the traditional trouble-spot) position of halfback. A NSW half needs to be a good playmaker as the #1 priority. You don’t even get to have a shot at kicking goals unless you can get tries. Surely Robbie Farah could be the general. He and Hayne even have decent kicking games. Select a forward, or a winger who can kick goals. Don’t lump all the responsibility on the halves or all you’ll do is just create scapegoats for 2014 and flush a couple more origin careers down the toilet.
So needless to say, I am not optimistic that NSW are going to suddenly break their losing run in 2014. But the great thing about being a professional punter is that it’s really all about the odds. State of Origin is still a footy contest, so that means anyone can win, and the bookies and punters out there are pricing NSW up in Game 1 to be the longest odds seen for a game at Suncorp. So this means there could be value there. NSW have the forwards and backline to compete even if they don’t have match winners in the halves, so anything can happen and probably will. Don’t be surprised if you see me putting money on NSW at the line. It’s just that, as a NSW fan, it is frustrating to see our origin team selected and managed so badly when we really DO have the talent to win. Origin is rugby leagues marquee event, it deserves to be managed better by NSW and QLD should never have won 8 in a row.
That’s why Mal Meninga is laughing.
Phantom Longshot 