The reviewing of betting performance is an important part of professional punting because trends can be identified where particular sports or market types may become more or less profitable over time. It is important to constantly adapt and evolve betting strategies over time to stay competitive and this is not really possible without reviewing recent performance.
May 2014 has been a solid month with consistent weekly profits generated. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-
| Week | Number of Bets | Strike Rate | Net Profit (in units) |
| Rep Weekend | 9 | 55.55% | +14.55 |
| NRL Week 9 | 28 | 32.14% | +13.10 |
| NRL Week 10 | 41 | 24.39% | +0.48 |
| NRL Week 11 + Origin 1 | 35 | 25.71% | +21.27 |
| NRL Week 12 | 27 | 33.33% | +14.22 |
| TOTAL | 140 | 30.00% | +63.62 |
Overall these are fairly satisfactory results. The Representative Weekend was a bit of a statistical anomaly because of fewer games being played and fewer bets placed, so it can be discounted to some extent. Interestingly the 2 weeks with the higher number of bets also show the lower strike rate, suggesting those weeks had more bets placed at longer odds. The vast difference in profit for those 2 weeks would also be consistent with the higher variance on good price options.
Having a look across the market types for betting over the month of May gives us these results :-
| Market Type | Number of Bets | Strike Rate | Net Profit (in units) |
| Match Handicap | 22 | 45.45% | +17.22 |
| 40 Min Handicap | 16 | 62.50% | +8.43 |
| Margin Bracket | 9 | 11.11% | -3.00 |
| Match/Team Points | 19 | 42.10% | -6.08 |
| Points Bracket | 8 | 12.50% | +6.75 |
| Halftime / Fulltime | 17 | 11.76% | +2.50 |
| First Scoring Play | 9 | 22.22% | +3.40 |
| Tryscorers | 40 | 20.00% | +34.40 |
| TOTAL | 140 | 30.00% | +63.62 |
Here the analysis becomes a bit more interesting. A good portion of my monthly profit for May has come from the Tryscorer bets and the Match and 40 minute Handicap bets. My strike rate is very good in particular when handicap betting on only one half of football (62.5%) though the profit on that market category is only fair since generally the prices obtained in this market category are only around the 1.90 mark. The Tryscorer betting, on the other hand, is often at much longer odds. My biggest individual wins of the month came from the Tryscorer category with a bet on Ben Matulino to be First Tryscorer in the Warriors vs Canberra game in Week 11 at a price of 41.00. Also I had a good win from having Jamie Soward to be the Last Tryscorer in the Penrith vs Parramatta game in Week 12 at a price of 26.00.
The Margin Bracket category was disappointing. It includes the 1-12 Margin bets, the 1-6 Tribet option and the Draw options. Here I was let down by the frequent Halftime Draw bets placed, though I had great success in this category early in the year so I am not too concerned. I’m more concerned about the Match / Team Points result, where a decent strike rate of 42.1% still gave me a net loss. This is another category where odds taken are frequently around the 1.90 mark. I have found in the past that this can be a tough category as it is very frequently affected by the weather and also by the refereeing. Some referees will blow a penalty-a-minute (results in high scoring), while others will allow defenders to encroach the 10 metre mark and stifle opposition attacks (results in low scoring). I take some heart from the good result in the related Points Bracket category where I make up for those losses. Here I have a much lower strike rate at 12.5% but am showing a profit from hitting an 11-20 Total Points bracket at 26.00 in the Souths vs Sharks game in Week 11. What I can see here is that I need to be more careful taking those shorter odds on Points markets.
A couple of other things I’ve noted from the May betting performance is that I am not reading a couple of teams very well. In particular the Sydney Roosters I have gone 3 weeks running without landing a single winning bet on their matches. That is 0 wins out of 17 bets placed on Roosters matches over 3 weeks. Clearly I am having difficulty with the Roosters inconsistency in effort where they are definitely a class side but don’t always play to their potential. The other team I had been struggling to read a bit in the past is the Brisbane Broncos, but I am starting to get a handle on their spine combinations now and I have turned around recent poor betting on the Broncos with a solid win in their Manly game. That’s the way it goes sometimes when a team can become inconsistent and hard to read it is often a good idea to reduce stakes or stay away from them until I am seeing them a bit clearer.
For any more detailed analysis of my betting performance in May, feel free to check out my Facebook Page where all of my bets have been posted prior to kickoff. Or, if you would like to ask any specific questions about my May betting, please write to me at phantomlongshot@flameburst.com
Phantom Longshot 