Betting Summary August 2014 : Post Origin NRL Bounces Back

With the State of Origin series done and dusted for 2014 the NRL finally returned to some normalcy over the month of August and along with it returned my betting profitability. However, results were still a bit volatile since with some teams falling out of finals contention it remained difficult to anticipate whether these teams would fire up with nothing to play for but pride.

There were 5 rounds of football played, though I did give myself a week off in Week 23 as I needed to freshen up. The week off did wonders for me as I recorded my best week of the year during Week 25, though admittedly I got lucky with a few nicely priced wagers it was probably luck that was due to come my way after some horrible fortune that struck me during the coldest months.

The betting results for August 2014 were a little bit mixed, but overall they are positive as my betting performance returned to good form. Below is the weekly summary in table form :-

Week	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
NRL Week 21	35	31.42%	+22.93
NRL Week 22	41	19.51%	-19.04
NRL Week 23	0	0.00%	+0.00
NRL Week 24	38	28.94%	+13.37
NRL Week 25	39	38.46%	+55.73
TOTAL	153	29.41%	+72.99

The highlight here is clearly the result in Week 25 which was an abnormally good week primarily due to landing a number of nicely priced Tryscorer bets, but I’m not complaining. Overall the month of August fell just a couple of units short of completely reversing the losses made in June and July so it has been a satisfying bounce back after the difficult State of Origin period and an important return to form heading into the NRL Finals Series.

Looking more closely at the breakdown of betting across market types we have :-

Market Type	Number of Bets	Strike Rate	Net Profit (in units)
Match Handicap	20	35.00%	+10.14
40 Min Handicap	17	52.94%	+1.40
Margin Bracket	9	22.22%	+13.00
Match/Team Points	21	47.62%	+8.57
Points Bracket	3	0.00%	-2.00
Halftime / Fulltime	10	10.00%	-7.30
First Scoring Play	17	11.76%	-11.60
Tryscorers	54	24.07%	+59.57
Other	2	50.00%	+1.20
TOTAL	153	29.41%	+72.99

Even though the Tryscorers category is clearly where the bulk of the profit is coming from this month, it is encouraging to see many of the other categories also showing a modest profit. The Margin Bracket category is showing a profit for the first time since early in the season after landing a couple of Halftime Draw bets at 12.00 each and the Match/Team Points category is also in profit for the first time in months primarily due to a change in strategy where I avoided more of the short odds (sub 2.0) and cherry picked for value markets at odds of 2.20 to 3.50 so that when I am right about points I am getting better payouts. I also had better success with betting on Team Points (even for just a 40 minute period) than Total Match Points.

On the flip side, I tried a new strategy with the 1st Scoring Play markets to try and take the underdog for a Try as 1st Score at odds of 2.50+ but this mostly backfired. I landed a couple so I am not totally convinced it’s a failed strategy as it still performed better than backing penalty goals which is a strategy that worked early in the season but I think that has died off as the season progresses and teams get more confident with their attacking options. I’ll need to do some deeper analysis here.

The Halftime/Fulltime category was also a disappointing result for the second month in a row. I’ll need to have a closer look at my strategy here too as late season fatigue could be affecting teams ability to mount comebacks after half time. It also could be related to the fact that some teams are dropping out of contention this time of year and not showing the sort of early game intensity you can generally rely on earlier in the season.

For any more detailed analysis of my betting performance in August, feel free to check out my Facebook Page where all of my bets have been posted prior to kickoff. Or, if you would like to ask any specific questions about my August betting, please write to me at phantomlongshot@flameburst.com

Changing your punting mindset

When people find out that I am a professional punter, the first thing they usually ask me is “Can you give me a hot tip ?”, but what they really are asking for is a bet that can’t lose. So when I tip them a 10.00 shot and it doesn’t get up they normally write me off and lose interest in what I do straight away. However, what most experienced punters realise is that there is no such thing as a bet that can’t lose. When people ask me for a hot tip I could do what most tipping shysters in the industry do and tip something at short odds (like backing Black Caviar at 1.07) just to maximise the chance of getting a winner to capture their interest, but I’d rather try and educate them about what being a professional punter is like. So I’ve put some thought into what it really takes to become a professional punter and I reckon the most important factor of success comes down to the mindset of the punter and, from my experience, how that mindset needs to change. In its simplest form I can summarise my own evolving mindset over the years like this :-

1. The Casual Punter bets on what he thinks WILL win

You see it at the racetrack all the time. Race-goers will be poring over the form guide and/or watching the parade looking for the horse that they think is going to win the next race. Once they’ve found their selection they walk up to the TAB, or into the betting ring and put their bet on – often regardless of what price it is. This is a little bit like getting the cart before the horse (excuse the poor pun) because one of the first things that the casual punter needs to realise is that price awareness and obtaining value is a very important part of making a good selection when betting. It is easy to spot the casual punter from a mile away by the way they talk or bet. They are in the business of picking winners and often when I’ve tried to talk some price sense into them with comments like “Your selection is too short”  I get a response back along the lines of “You don’t go broke backing winners mate !”  True enough I suppose, but these are often the poor mugs chasing losses, going all-in on the last race of the day (also known as the “Get out of Jail Stakes”) and/or crying into their beer when their short price favourite goes down. Bookmakers love these guys and they are often the ones who help bend market prices into rediculous shapes for others to exploit.

2. The Semi-Professional Punter bets on what he thinks SHOULD win

I must confess that I got stuck in this mindset for a couple of years and it can be tough to break out of it. The semi-professional usually has a good grasp of how and why it is important to obtain value when betting and knows how to analyse and price up a market. As a semi-professional I used to do all my pre-match analysis ahead of time, as I do now, and then try to figure out what SHOULD win before then shopping around and checking the prices to see if I could find value for my selection. If I couldn’t find value then I would usually come up with a NO BET even if my selection was so short that it meant there had to be value in other options. One problem with this mindset is that the semi-professional still usually gets caught up backing favourites (because favourites by definition *should* win) but for the most part sport and racing can dish up a lot of random and unforeseeable results. Another problem is that you still do all the form analysis, but a lot of betting opportunities are missed if your selection is too short and there is value to be had with other options. However, by far the worst problem with this mindset is the frustration that occurs when a selection that should win but, by some cruel referee decision or random bounce of the ball, doesn’t. There is nothing worse than sitting there after a game having lost a decent chunk of your bank backing a favourite at the shorts but knowing that the better team actually lost. It can really do your head in after a while and a losing run can easily kill your betting mojo.

3. The Professional Punter bets on what he thinks COULD win

This was a simple change in the mindset but when I adopted it the world of possibilities just seemed to open up for me. It was like reaching a kind of punters enlightenment where my eyes were suddenly open and I could see clearly. I remember at the start of an NRL season I wrote down a few notes after a tough season the year before. At the top of the list was this nugget “Rugby League is a random game”.  I started looking at games and wondering what COULD happen, so after I did all my usual pre-match analysis I went into the markets with an open mind to finding value on all sorts of weird and wonderful selections and I could find plenty. Many of them could be found at longer odds and it was a lot easier to cope with those losses and near misses because firstly, my stakes were lower because the odds I was getting were higher, and secondly, because I was never really wrong. What I mean by that is that my selections certainly COULD have won and even if they didn’t, I console myself with the fact that they were worth a shot and didn’t cost a lot. Since adopting this mindset I have become a full time professional punter. I can find value almost anywhere so I am betting more and winning more and I cope with the frequent losses a lot better than I used to even though my strike rate is actually lower than it used to be. Confidence in what I’m doing is high as I don’t find myself doubting or second guessing myself when I have a losing run. In fact often I don’t even notice the losing runs because they don’t hurt so nearly as much.

In my opinion any change in mindset that can help take the emotion out of the bet selection process is surely a step toward being a more professional punter. Are you a punter who could benefit from a change in mindset ?